Ukraine is forecast to export around 40 million tonnes of grain and 15 million tonnes of oilseeds, oils and meals in 2025/26.

RaboResearch general manager Stefan Vogel said this is roughly 20 per cent below pre‑war levels and reflects two structural constraints. “First, Russia occupies large areas of grain production in eastern and southern Ukraine,” he said. “Grain from these regions no longer flows through Ukrainian ports and may, in part, be exported via Russian channels instead. Second, yields have shifted due to a combination of weather variability and changes in farm productivity.”

Mr Vogel said even at these reduced levels, though, Ukraine’s export volumes remain substantial. “Total Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports are still expected to exceed Australia’s by around 20 per cent this season, underscoring the importance of understanding how Ukrainian exports reach global markets and how resilient these channels are.”

The Rabobank analyst said before the war, Ukraine shipped almost all its grain through Black Sea ports, as ocean transport on bulk vessels is by far the most cost‑efficient option. “This remains largely true today. Well over 90 per cent of Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports move through ports in the Odesa region, supplied primarily by rail from inland production areas. Only if this corridor was severely disrupted would exports meaningfully shift to alternative channels,” he said.

Since 2022, Mr Vogel said, Ukraine has invested in backup export routes to reduce its exposure to disruptions at Odesa. “In practice, however, these alternatives remain limited in scale and cost‑competitive only under extreme circumstances. Ultimately, they do not have the capacity to move all of Ukraine’s grain volumes to world markets.”

Mr Vogel said the most significant alternative route is via Ukrainian Danube River ports, from where grain is shipped by barge to Romania’s Constanța deep‑sea export terminals. “During periods of heavy disruption to Odesa exports in 2023, this route handled up to 14 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain. However, logistics costs of roughly AUD 50–100 per tonne above Odesa shipment costs have since reduced its attractiveness. Even at their peak, Danube exports accounted for less than 25 per cent of total Ukrainian grain and oilseeds exports and scaling them much beyond seems unlikely.”

“Rail exports into the European Union are constrained by high costs and regulatory limits, Mr Vogel said. “With the re‑introduction of EU tariff‑rate quotas for Ukrainian wheat, barley and corn, rail shipments are restricted to well below 10 per cent of Ukraine’s total grain and oilseed export volume. Rail plays a more consistent role for vegetable oil and oil meal exports, but not for bulk grains. Monthly rail shipments typically average 200,000–400,000 tonnes, equivalent to 5–10 per cent of total G&O exports.

“Truck shipments are even more limited, constrained by costs, border congestion and truck availability, and are irrelevant at scale, he said.

As a result, Mr Vogel said, Ukraine’s 2026 grain and oilseed exports will again depend heavily on inland rail transport from the production regions to Odesa and on the continued operation of ports in the Odesa region. “Any severe disruption to this flow would slow exports, raise logistics costs and erode farmer margins.”

“Global buyers will therefore hope that Ukrainian exports continue broadly uninterrupted in 2026,” Mr Vogel said. “Even if disruptions occur, Ukraine would find ways to move some volumes – but nowhere near all. Markets would likely react with higher prices, though a repeat of the record highs of 2022/23 remains unlikely, as Russia is still expected to continue exporting grain, finding buyers and receiving payment.”

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