Global grain production is expected to soar to unprecedented levels in the 2025/26 season, driven by favourable crop conditions across most major growing regions.

RaboResearch Australia general manager Stefan Vogel said output growth is 3.2 per cent on the previous year – “which may sound modest, but it isn’t”. “This additional 92 million tonnes is equivalent to nearly twice Australia’s total annual grain production and roughly double the typical yearly increase in global consumption,” he said.

Mr Vogel said corn is the primary driver of this surge. “Not only did global corn acreage reach an all-time high, but record-breaking yields in the world’s largest production region – the United States – will push global corn output up by more than 50 million tonnes, setting a new record.”

While global wheat acreage fell to its lowest level in three years, Mr Vogel said, as farmers shifted land to other crops, strong yields still propelled wheat production to a new high. “This marks the seventh consecutive year of global wheat-production growth and the largest annual increase since 2019.”

Barley output climbed to its highest level in three years, thanks to yield improvements – particularly in the EU, Russia and Australia, he said.

“Adding to the global grain glut, sorghum production reached its highest level in over a decade, while rice output held steady at last year’s record.”

Beyond grains, Mr Vogel said, canola production also hit a worldwide record, driven by growth in Canada, the EU and Australia. “Similarly, global pulse production surged to an all-time high as farmers in Canada, Russia and Australia expanded acreage and harvested strong yields.”

“Although global consumption of these grain and oilseed crops is rising, it is not keeping pace with this year’s production boom. Managing the resulting inventory buildup will take time, and future price volatility is more likely to stem from crop issues than demand shocks.”

Here are some key risks to watch in the months ahead:

Mr Vogel said wheat crop conditions in eastern Europe and the US are less than ideal for the harvest in mid-2026, with delayed planting in several regions increasing the risk of winter kill. “While headlines about frost damage may arise through next April, winter kill impacts are notoriously hard to estimate, and price spikes tend to be short-lived – especially in years of abundant supply when farmers are eager to sell.”

In January and February, he said, markets will be focussed on South American weather conditions potentially affecting Argentine corn and soybean yields and Brazil’s safrinha corn planting. However, the current weak La Niña weather pattern typically poses limited risk for this region.

By late March, the Rabobank analyst said, attention will turn to US corn planting intentions. “If farmers shift acreage to soybeans, the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report could move markets, though a more accurate acreage assessment won’t be available until late June. And President Trump’s recent USD12 billion aid package for US row crop farmers might help keep next season’s grain acreage high.”

“In May,” Mr Vogel said, “the spotlight will shift to weather conditions in the northern hemisphere which are critical for yield development in wheat, barley and canola.”

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