As the 2025/26 winter crop harvest moves forward in Australia, both global supply and demand for wheat are constantly changing because of weather and prices. The 2026/27 season, however, looks to have a clearer starting point, with full silos, pressured prices and the expectation of a small area cut in the EU and the Black Sea.

RaboResearch senior grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia said the eastern parts of Ukraine and southern wheat regions in Russia recently received good rainfall. “This helped the winter crops grow stronger before snowfall, which should lower the risk of weak crops when spring arrives in early 2026,” he said.

On the other hand, though, Mr Pistoia said, some winter wheat-growing areas in the US are receiving less rain than usual.

“Looking ahead,” he said “weather forecasts for December 2025 to February 2026 suggest most winter wheat regions will get normal amounts of rain, except in the US, where a warmer winter could dry out the soil faster.”

Mr Pistoia said for major spring wheat producers like Australia and Canada, seeding is still a few months away, and the development of El Niño or La Niña weather patterns is important to watch. “By mid-November, most forecasts indicate the Pacific Ocean will shift from La Niña to neutral conditions by February 2026 and stay neutral until at least April, which is when Australian farmers start planting.”

The Rabobank analyst said global wheat supply remains abundant despite ongoing risks. “While political tensions in the Black Sea region and weather uncertainties persist, the market is currently well supplied, keeping prices under pressure and intensifying competition among exporters.”

According to the latest November USDA WASDE report, Mr Pistoia said, global wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to increase by 10 million tonnes compared to 2024/25, driven by strong harvests across multiple countries, outpacing the increase in demand.

“US wheat exports have become more competitive this year, supported by a weaker dollar and higher stock levels,” he said. “The US typically rivals Australia in supplying wheat to key Asian markets such as Japan, the Philippines and South Korea. These dynamics could significantly influence profit margins for exporters.”

When it comes to prices, Mr Pistoia said, important wheat price benchmarks have changed recently. “In mid-September, spot prices fell as low as AUD 275 per tonne on CBOT and AUD 300 per tonne on MATIF and ASX, mostly because Russia revised up its production. By early November, CBOT prices rose to AUD 300 per tonne after news China would start buying US grain again, including wheat.”

Mr Pistoia said another factor putting pressure on prices comes from South America, with Argentina set to harvest its biggest-ever wheat crop, at 24 million tonnes. “Usually though, there is little overlap between Australia and Argentina’s wheat exports, with Indonesia the exception.”

A key factor for 2026 wheat prices will be the spring planting decisions that will be made by European farmers from March to May, Mr Pistoia said. “Current price relationships between wheat and canola, combined with high fertiliser costs squeezing margins, suggest some spring wheat and barley areas could shift to canola and sunflower. This trend may emerge across the EU, Ukraine and Russia, as tight vegetable oil markets – excluding soybeans – and rising biofuel mandates continue to support demand.”

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