Two major developments are reshaping the global grain trade in mid-2025, with significant implications for producers from Ukraine to the United States – and ripple effects that might be felt on farms across the globe.

RaboResearch Australia and New Zealand general manager Stefan Vogel said first, the European Union has officially reintroduced grain import quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products, ending the temporary liberalisation measures that had been in place since Russia’s 2022 invasion. “The re-introduced quotas – which had been applied for many years before the war started in Ukraine – will reshape wheat trade flows as Ukraine will have to cut back its wheat exports to the EU by about 70% compared with last year (to a total of approximately 1.3 million tonnes),” he said. “And, with it, Ukraine is set to become more aggressive selling into other countries including those in South-East Asia, where Australia ships its wheat.”

On the other hand, Mr Vogel said, as a result of this development, with less imported wheat coming into the European Union, the EU might also scale back its own wheat exports to countries where it competes with Australia.

So, all in all, this could end up being a non-event for Australian farmers, he said.

Mr Vogel said for canola, a commodity that moves in large volumes from Ukraine into the EU, there will be no impact from this change as quotas have not applied, with oilseeds always traded freely between the two regions. “So, in 2025/26 Australian farmers will see continued heavy competition from Ukraine canola into the EU,” he said.

“The EU’s canola crop – which is in the final stages of harvest – has exceeded that of the last year while, despite lower inventories at the beginning of this season, the overall import demand from the EU is likely to shrink year on year,” Mr Vogel said.

“Meanwhile, across the globe, the United States is poised to benefit from a major new wheat export agreement with Indonesia,” he said. “Jakarta has agreed to purchase at least one million metric tons of US wheat annually over the next five years. The memorandum of understanding, signed by the Indonesian Flour Mills Association and US Wheat Associates, is part of broader trade negotiations aimed at averting steep new tariffs threatened by the US administration. Indonesia, facing a potential 32% tariff hike on its exports to the US, is using agricultural imports as a bargaining chip. In addition to wheat, it has offered to increase purchases of US aircraft and energy products.”

In the months ahead, Mr Vogel said, all eyes will be on how Ukraine adapts its export strategy and whether the US-Indonesia deal sets a precedent for other bilateral agricultural agreements; and if Indonesia actually imports the expected volumes from the US. “This is given that in recent years, the US has been only a minor supplier of wheat to Indonesia and the caveat is US wheat still needs to be competitive against other origins,” he said. “Australia is typically a key supplier of wheat to Indonesia along with Canada, Argentina, Russia and Ukraine. For now, the message is clear: in a world of shifting alliances, market access is as much about diplomacy as it is about yield.”

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