Tariffs and – retaliatory action to them – are poised to be the major macroeconomic and geopolitical factors in 2025 and will impact global pulse markets.

RaboResearch grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia said when it comes to pulses, the year has started with important announcements from China, the US and India.

In early March, Mr Pistoia said the Chinese government imposed a 100 per cent tariff on various Canadian agricultural imports, including peas. “China is Canada’s second-largest market for peas, which are primarily used there as food ingredients, snacks and in pet food. Due to China’s tariff, Canadian pea exports may move to alternative markets, displacing other pulse exporters,” he said.

“In terms of meeting China’s supply requirement for peas, it is likely Russia and Kazakhstan will step in to benefit.”

Mr Pistoia said while the US isn’t a major player in the pulse market – compared with soybeans and corn markets – President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs could exert additional downward pressure on the global pulse market.

“The US relies on Canada for a fair share of its pea imports,” he said, “which could reinforce a bearish outlook as Canada looks to allocate its exports to alternative markets. This is similar to the situation faced by Canadian canola marketers.”

Other significant tariff announcements have come from India, a country which is crucial to Australian pulse exports, Mr Pistoia said. “India has introduced global tariffs of 10 per cent on lentils and chickpeas, driven by an optimistic local production outlook. Duty-free imports of yellow peas will end by May 31 this year, although pigeon peas and black beans will remain exempt until March 31, 2026.”

The Rabobank analyst said India is expected to see a significant increase in pulse imports for 2024/25 financial year, due to increased demand driven by a growing population and growing per capita GDP.

“The silver lining for Australian exports is that the exemption on Indian duties on peas – which compete with Australian lentils and chickpeas – are expected to be short lived,” Mr Pistoia said. “With the new season Indian crops entering the system, close monitoring of international prices and domestic production will gauge India’s demand for the second half of 2025. The main reason the Indian government implements import tariffs is to balance out farm gate prices and food inflation.”

Looking globally, Mr Pistoia said farmers in Russia, Kazakhstan and Canada may shift towards seeding more peas and lentils at the expense of cereals and canola based on the gross margin outlook of these crops. And such a change could pose a challenge for Australian pulse exports of the 2025/26 crop.

“On a positive note,” he said, “Russia has imposed a five per cent export tariff on peas, lentils, and chickpeas for countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan).”

Mr Pistoia said for Australia, lentils and chickpeas are expected to lead pulse production this season. “Queensland and northern New South Wales have good soil moisture levels, and the potential gross margin for lentils looks much higher than for wheat or canola this year. South Australia is expected to maintain its leading role in lentil production, while Queensland and New South Wales are expected to focus on chickpeas.”

He said there is also growing interest in faba bean production in Victoria and southern New South Wales. “In Western Australia, lentil and chickpea production is gaining traction in non-traditional areas, such as Esperance and the Kwinana port zones – driven by improved profitability and agronomic benefits.”

And the global market signals strong and sustained demand for these crops, Mr Pistoia said.

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