Trade flows have been a defining feature of fertiliser markets throughout 2026. As Australia’s cropping sector moves into the harvest period, RaboResearch agriculture analyst Oskar Mitchell said it is worth examining how shifting supply chains are shaping pricing across both urea and phosphate markets.

Mr Mitchell said while both markets experienced significant price volatility during the year, nitrogen benefited from a more flexible and diversified supply base. “The ability to source product from regions beyond the Middle East proved crucial in easing supply concerns and ultimately helping international urea prices normalise,” he said.

“Phosphate, however, has followed a markedly different trajectory,” Mr Mitchell said. “Supply constraints and limited alternative sources have kept prices high, leaving buyers facing elevated costs and producers contending with tightening margins. As affordability pressures have intensified, signs of ‘demand destruction’ have emerged across the phosphate market.”

Mr Mitchell said Australia’s urea import profile provides a clear example of just how dynamic global fertiliser trade flows have become.

“In 2025, Australia sourced 64% of its urea imports from the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates the country’s dominant suppliers,” he said. “For many years, the region has been the backbone of Australia’s imported urea supply.”

The Rabobank analyst said that reliance has eased considerably this year. “To August 2026, the Middle East accounted for just 28% of Australia’s urea imports, less than half its share a year earlier.”

“Taking up the slack have been Australia’s Asian neighbours,” Mr Mitchell said. “In 2025, Asian suppliers accounted for 35% of Australia’s urea imports. By August 2026, that share had climbed to 56%, with Malaysia and Indonesia emerging as major suppliers and accounting for the lion’s share of these volumes.”

He said another notable development has been the arrival of Nigerian product into the Australian market. “Nigeria had not supplied any meaningful urea volumes to Australia during the previous five years, yet in 2026 it has accounted for 12% of imports, making it Australia’s fourth-largest source of urea.”

Globally, Mr Mitchell said another important factor has been the return of Chinese urea exports. “China exported 4.9 million tonnes of urea in 2025, while market research firm CRU Group forecasts exports to reach 6.3 million tonnes by the end of 2026. That represents an increase of almost 30% year on year, adding significant tonnes to the global market. This additional supply has been a key factor helping international urea prices normalise following the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

Mr Mitchell said Australia’s MAP import profile, meanwhile, presents a much steadier picture. “In 2025, 46% of Australia’s MAP imports originated from Morocco, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 31% and China contributing a further 15%.”

To find out more about RaboResearch, contact your local Rabobank branch on 1300 303 033 or subscribe to RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Australia & New Zealand on your podcast app.

RaboResearch Disclaimer: Please refer to our Australian RaboResearch disclaimer here