Australian pulse prices have softened in recent weeks, largely due to an above-average monsoon across South Asia. RaboResearch senior grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistóia said this has led to flood damage in parts of India and Pakistan, but has also boosted subsoil moisture levels, setting the stage for a strong Rabi (winter) crop in the region.

Mr Pistóia said the market appears confident India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will achieve solid yields, which – combined with rising imports and easing domestic stock tightness – is putting further downward pressure on prices. “Notably,” he said, “India’s import pace has slowed since May, suggesting supply and demand is indeed heading towards a new balance level.”

Another reason for the price decline is the surge in global pulse supply, Mr Pistóia said. “Russia and Kazakhstan have added around one million tonnes to lentil output, while Canada has increased pea production by 0.5 million tonnes year-on-year, reaching 3.6 million tonnes. In Australia, chickpea and lentils production is on track to exceed 1.8 million tonnes for each, potentially the third-largest crop on record for chickpeas and an all-time high for lentils. While this is positive for local producers from a volume perspective, it contributes to the global oversupply narrative,” he said.

The Rabobank analyst said Indian imports are the main demand driver for pulses, and their pattern is fundamental in setting global prices trends. “Imports peak between November and January and drop from May to July,” he said. “This cycle aligns with Ramadan, another key demand driver, which will take place in mid-Q1 2026. Together, they shape seasonal demand for Australian pulses and prices. Looking ahead to Q2 2026 and beyond, India’s import duties are the key watchpoint. With domestic stocks rebuilding and prices falling, the likelihood of India reinstating hefty import duties after March 2026 is increasing. Back in 2018, lentils faced 30% duties and chickpeas 40%, before being reduced to zero in mid-2021. Currently, they stand at 10%.”

Despite the price correction, Mr Pistóia said, pulses profitability remains supported for chickpeas and lupins, with lentils requiring further attention.

“Chickpea producers in Queensland and northern New South Wales are likely to see good returns, with strong yields offsetting softer prices,” he said. “In Western Australia, lupin prices have held up better than chickpeas and lentils, and yields are forecast to be in line with or above average. However, lentil margins in South Australia and Victoria call for close attention. Under a lower yield and price scenario of 1 tonne/hectare and AUD 600/tonne, the chances of only breaking even on variable costs are substantial.”

Mr Pistóia said for this and coming seasons, pulses are considered to remain a viable and profitable option, especially compared to cereals, but strategic marketing and timing will be critical, as exports are focused on a handful of countries with well-defined dynamics.

Figure 1. Pulses prices, cost and freight

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: GPC, RaboResearch 2025

Figure 2. India’s pulses imports

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beans: kidney, cow peas, bambara, adzuki, black, red
Source: DGCIS, RaboResearch 2025

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