Growing-season rainfall has been favourable across most Australian cropping regions, with the outlook indicating above-average rainfall for the east coast and South Australia. In Western Australia, the forecast for the next three months is less certain, but soil moisture levels remain strong in three out of four port zones.

RaboResearch senior grain and oilseed analyst Vitor Pistoia said the season’s mixed start is now tilting towards another strong harvest for Australia. “Globally, wheat production is tracking well, and the overall supply and demand balance continues to favour supply, adding further pressure to prices,” he said. “Like Australia, many exporting countries are seeing sluggish exports.”

For canola, Mr Pistoia said, the situation is more balanced, but EU production recovery year-over-year is expected to add some price pressure in coming months, as well as China’s tariffs on Canadian canola.

So, Mr Pistoia posed the question, “what does this all mean for local growers of grains and oilseeds?”

He said Australian wheat producers are likely to have a lot of “cheap” grain to sell throughout 2026, and marketing strategies are key to keep profitability afloat, including hedging and deferred forward contracts.

“There is one major price-influencing factor to be determined later in the year, which is northern hemisphere winter sowing, which goes until December. Forecasts are currently neutral in terms of rainfall across grain-growing regions in the northern hemisphere to Q4 2025, making any assumptions about potential sowing headwinds – and price upside – a long-shot.”

For barley, the Rabobank analyst said, Australia historically exports around 56 per cent of its production. “Malting barley prices continue to struggle due to shifting consumption habits, offering limited upside for Australian exporters. On the feed side, global corn supply is robust, following a strong harvest in South America and excellent growing conditions in the United States,” he said. “The US may break yield records this year, on top of an expansion in cropping area year-on-year. The end game is that CBOT corn prices are likely to keep trending lower, which means Australian feed barley needs to follow suit to remain competitive.”

For canola, Mr Pistoia said, in recent months, GM canola prices have closed the gap with non-GM, driven by recovery in the EU production, which pressured non-GM prices. “At the same time, European crushers have boosted imports of Canadian canola to meet demand, coinciding with a pickup in Canada’s crushing activity.”

However, Mr Pistoia noted, as the EU and Black Sea region harvests wrap up with a year-on-year recovery of more than 0.5 million tonnes – and with the new sunflower crop about to hit the market – prices are expected to drop slightly. “Unlike wheat and barley, global canola stocks remain relatively tight, and this season is unlikely to significantly replenish them,” he said.

Mr Pistoia said locally, non-GM canola prices are expected to see a small price drift year-over-year by harvest time, which – compared with wheat and barley – is a big win. “Looking ahead to 2026, Australian canola may stand to benefit from shifting geopolitical dynamics, particularly as China prepares to conduct a five-vessel trial of Australian GM canola. The first shipment is expected to arrive by December 2025, potentially laying the foundations for expanded export opportunities to China.”

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