Global fertiliser prices may move lower over the next year, primarily thanks to an improving supply and demand outlook.

Elevated fertiliser prices have been a key pain point for farmers in recent years, RaboResearch agriculture analyst Paul Joules said, with urea prices up 31 per cent, phosphate prices up 25 per cent and potash prices up 10 per cent since the beginning of 2024.

However, the Rabobank analyst said, market dynamics are showing signs of modest improvement.

“RaboResearch expects some fertiliser prices to track lower in 2026, primarily due to poor global affordability, which is beginning to weigh on global demand,” he said.

Mr Joules said RaboResearch expects urea prices to ease over the next six months, though they will remain responsive to Indian demand, which has been strong recently. Further Indian tenders have the potential to cause short-term volatility.

“For phosphate markets,” he said, “high prices are expected to curb demand, however, given most producers are already operating at full capacity, downside potential is somewhat limited,”.

Mr Joules said for potash fertilisers, dynamics differ. “Supplies are abundant, yet prices are correcting higher because in 2024 they were close to the cost of production. Looking ahead, RaboResearch sees prices trending slightly lower over the next six months amid a favourable supply outlook.”

Adding to this, he said, RaboResearch forecasts the Australian dollar to rise 5.5 per cent over the next 12 months. “Given Australia’s high reliance on fertiliser imports, this could partially help offset elevated international prices.”

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